GANAHL ON MEDIA: Let Google Fix It

What’s a column on media without media predictions for the upcoming year? Right now everybody is in the prediction business. A Google search for ‘2010 media predictions’ resulted in over 9 million hits in just 0.22 seconds, really! And why be bashful, because who keeps score anyway? Twelve months from now, I’ll be lucky to find this column, much less measure its predictive value! So, here’s my 2010 media predictions.  

1. Make Google Fix It: Yes, you read it right…Make Google Fix It. This year has been abysmal in almost every way for almost every media. Earlier columns document a media industry suffering from its largest-ever advertising revenue decline, unimaginable industry job losses, and stunted collegiate career aspirations. The solution? Make Google Fix It.  

Certainly President Obama and his Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner are no shrinking violets in the face of economic meltdowns. Look at their treatment of the automobile industry: forced dealership closures, forced bankruptcies, forced management changes, forced changes in union contracts: need I go on? 

Google is best positioned among the media titans for this type of operation: it’s profitable, it’s digital, it’s responsive and it has a corporate jet big enough to round up the industry’s limping moguls and dictate a solution.  

Wish I could be a fly on the wall when Eric, Sergey and Larry dress down Chicago’s Sam Zell, New York’s Aurthur Sulzberger and MySpace’s Rupert Murdoch!  

2. Apple and AP Launch iAP: a digital news app: This seems such a no brainer, I’m almost embarrassed to publish it under my byline! Steve Jobs, a.k.a. M3, or ‘micro-payment-music mogul’ redeemed Shawn Fanning's peer-to-peer music sharing model (yeah Boston’s Northeastern University!), pioneered a business model that distributes digital music files, and brought peace to the music industry’s many competing participants...all for 99 cents a song! Oh, and I almost forgot…iTunes controls almost 70% of the industry’s download business!  

AP, a non-profit news organization owned by its 1,500 daily newspaper members, argues it’s the world’s largest news organization with almost 5,000 journalists. It distributes worldwide multi-platform content through its global news bureaus network to 1,700 newspapers and over 5,000 radio and television stations. AP CEO Thomas Curley was weaned on legacy media having conducted the initial feasibility study for USA Today founder Al Neutharth.  

So what’s the hook? Easy…AP dominates global content creation, and Apple dominates global digital distribution. As an added bonus, Shawn Fanning gets the job as the joint venture’s VP of Technological Innovation!  

3. AP Bets Content Is King And Announces IPO: Nearly 170 years ago, The Associated Press launched as a cooperative news service that merged a network of daring overland riders, high-speed ponies, and telegraph wires to bring news about the Mexican War 700 miles to four New York City newspapers. Today, it boasts of the world’s largest newsroom with almost 5,000 journalists that distribute content across all platforms to 1,700 newspapers and more than 5,000 radio and television stations. 

Impressive enough, but its business model is threatened by the free digital distribution of content through Internet aggregators such as Google, AOL, Yahoo! and millions of other sites. In announcing its IPO, AP CEO Thomas Curley may say, “The market is stabilizing and the Street’s major investment houses seem poised to rebound. We are a content business, like Bloomberg News and The Wall Street Journal. This model works for them, and we think it will work for AP.” Be careful about holding this stock for the long haul. I rate it as a buy and a quick sell!  

4. While Content Is Free It’ll Be Harder To Find: The major content producers cling to, and whine about their outdated business model through 2010. As they watch revenues decline (or stagnate at best) they hide content from search engines or behind pay walls. Murdoch’s threat to with hold content from Google reported in Newsweek offers a hint of what will come. Don’t worry, Wikipedia gets in the daily news business and launches the Wiki Daily!  

5. Michelle Obama Premieres Talk Show On Oprah Channel: In 2010 Michelle grows weary of the ‘White House Mom’ dream. Inspired by Hillary Clinton’s life-after-the-White-House-Mom model, Michelle partners with Oprah on a cable talk show that goes head to head against ABC’s The View. The Clinton’s and the Obama’s battle to re-capture the White House! “If it worked for the Bush pop and son team, it will work for our husband and wife team,” Michelle may challenge.  

6. Comcast Partners With Philadelphia’s Tierney In Newspaper Venture: Still pumped from his NBC purchase, tri-athlete and Comcast CEO Michael Roberts grows weary and suspicious of the New York media elite (after all he’s a Philadelphia cheese steak kind of guy!). Enamored by media impresario and Philadelphia Inquirer publisher Brian Tierney’s plea to ‘keep it at home,’ Roberts buys 52% of the Inquirer. “After all, I love the PI’s sports section,” Roberts may claim.  

7. !!GABANG!! Challenges Social Media Giants: Fearing irrelevance, Bill Gates, Steve Ballmer and Jerry Yang launch !!GABANG!!, a social media site for angst-ridden Baby Boomers. “Hey we believe in this thing,” Ballmer may yell, “that’s why we have four…count them…four exclamation marks! Our names are riding on this!’ !!GABANG!! cleverly (!) uses two letters from each of the founder’s last name. It’s rumored Microsoft founder Paul Allen is composing !!GABANG!!’s musical jingle.  

8. Twitter, Facebook and YouTube Share Nobel Peace Prize: Sweden’s Nobel Foundation awarded this year’s Nobel Peace to Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube for their contributions to Iran’s regime change. The Nobel Foundation praised the social media sites for their work in mobilization and communication. “We’re sorry Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has cancelled his personal accounts with the sites,” a foundation spokesperson may explain, “but in the long run he’ll renew, he was an avid Twitterer!”  

9. Dreamers Rule and Innovation Rocks The Next Decade: Dream-driven young people have fueled this media revolution. Berners-Lee, Gates, Allen, Jobs, Wozniak, Case, Dell, Waitt, Andreesen, Bezos, Omidyar, Fanning, Brin, Page, Anderson, DeWolf, Zuckerberg, Hughes, Hurley, Chen, Karim and thousands of others rocked our status quo. Armed with, and bound by nothing these dreamers changed our world. The Next Decade belongs to them and those like them. Dreamers Rule!

Photo Credits: Official White House Portrait of Michelle Obama; Bill Gates and Paul Allen by
Doug Wilson/Corbis

GANAHL ON MEDIA: The J-Grad Job Crisis

QUESTION: What are the odds of finding meaningful careers in journalism and mass communications (J&MC) for the more than 50,000 students graduating in 2009-10 from the country’s 480 plus schools with 4-year communication programs?

ANSWER: While it’s impossible to be precise, history may guide us. The authors of the annual graduate report conclude that 2008 graduates in “journalism and mass communications programs found themselves in a disastrous job market” according to the Annual Survey of Journalism & Mass Communications Graduates.

And the authors should know: this is the survey’s 23rd year. The Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication (AEJMC) and a number of media, media associations and educational institutions sponsor the survey, which is conducted by the Grady College of J & MC at the University of Georgia. The Cox Research Center director is Dr. Lee B. Becker.

The survey results are based on a sample of 2,542 undergraduate and graduate students, and represent a 32% return rate of the initial 9,526 surveys mailed. The sample error for the undergraduate sample is 2.0% (N=2,360), and 7.3% for the graduate sample (N=182). Surveys were collected from October 2008 to March 2009.

So, just how disastrous was the career market for 2008 J&MC graduates? More importantly, what career strategies does this suggest for the 2009-2010 graduate?

Overall 60% of the 2008 graduates found full-time employment six to eight months after graduation, and “only half of the graduates had full-time work in the field of communication.” A year earlier, 70% of the 2007 graduates found full-time employment. The unemployment rate for the 2008 graduates was 17.5% compared to 13% for 2007 graduates.

It’s worth noting that the rate of full-time employment among the various curriculum specialties in the 2008 survey ranges from 56% for broadcasting, to 59% for print journalism, to 65% for advertising and 71% for public relations.

The median starting salary reported in the 2008 survey for those finding full-time employment was $30,000 for undergraduate degrees and $38,000 for graduate degrees. Becker notes this is “the same average salary” reported in the 2007 survey, and compares to the $49,224 average starting salary offer for all 2008 college graduates reported by the National Association of Colleges and employers (NACE). The median annual salaries among the various degree specialties varies considerably, and ranges from $24,000 for television, to $26,000 for weekly newspapers, to $29,000 for daily newspapers, to $31,000 for public relations, to $33,800 for cable television.

So, what kind of future does this survey suggest?

Trends in the national unemployment rate suggest 2009 graduates will face even more hostile conditions. Unemployment rates during the 2008 survey time period ranged from 6.6% in October 2008 to 8.5% in March 2009. In just a year the unemployment rate has soared nearly 60% to 10.2% in October 2009. Business Week noted there was little evidence that the more than 18% unemployment rate for 16-to-24-year-olds would change anytime soon “potentially creating a kind of ‘lost generation.’” Please see graphic published on October 19, 2009 by Business Week.

And, what can the 2009 J&MC graduate do?

First, knowledge is power. Simply by reading this column you are being proactive. Immerse yourself in current changes related to your field, and become an expert in understanding the forces and trends shaping your future. Arm yourself with the currency of relevant and timely information.

Second, diversify your career aspirations and cross-train among the various media platforms. Write often, take many pictures, shoot much video and record multiple interviews. Specialize in multi-media story telling. Lead your colleagues in the march to the Internet, and join the vanguard of digital innovators.

Third, become a content area expert. Grow passion for your favorite subject and promote yourself relentlessly. The New York Times’ recent profile of Bill Simmons and his rise from “an obscure online sports commentator” to “perhaps America’s most famous sports columnist” as the ESPN Sports Guy is both inspiring and telling. The digital highway holds the promise of many career paths.

Is the career goblet half empty or half full for the 2009 J&MC graduate ?

You decide.